The future of AUKUS, the trilateral defence pact between Australia, the U.S. and the U.K. has been thrown into fresh doubt after reports emerged that the Trump administration was “reviewing” the agreement.
Under the terms of the ongoing deal between the three nations struck back in 2021 — variously valued at sums in the region of $240bn — Australia is set to acquire its own nuclear-powered attack submarines.
The first phase — dubbed Pillar I — would see the U.S. selling Australia up to five Virginia-class vessels from 2032 onwards. The programme will eventually result in Australia acquiring its own future fleet of conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines in the early 2040s.
At the end of February this year, in the first of multiple planned American SSN submarine visits planned for 2025 under the AUKUS programme, the U.S. Navy nuclear-powered attack submarine USS Minnesota docked at HMAS Stirling in Western Australia.
AUKUS has been widely seen as a response to the perceived growing threat to peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region posed by the People’s Republic of China, which is rapidly increasing its military capabilities.
U.S. defence officials have been quoted in the world media as saying that the review comes “as part of ensuring that this initiative of the previous administration is aligned with the President’s ‘America First’ agenda.”
The review is expected to be led by Elbridge Colby, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, an American national security policy professional who has previously been critical of the AUKUS deal, amid concerns that America is struggling to meet its domestic target of producing two new submarines a year.
Pillar II of the AUKUS deal takes in planned future collaboration across a range of emerging technologies including hypersonic weapons and systems to defeat them, quantum technologies, electronic warfare and developments in AI.
The British government has responded to news of the review by saying it was “understandable” a new administration might wish to review such a major partnership, but also described AUKUS as “a landmark security and defence partnership with two of our closest allies” and further noted: “It is one of the most strategically important partnerships in decades.”
Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles has downplayed the review, claiming there was still strong support for the AUKUS deal in the new American administration.